Three weeks in, the picture has changed. With the group stage done and the Round of 32 set, we re-rank the surviving teams on what they have actually shown. France and Argentina look like winners, Spain and Brazil are climbing into form, Germany flattered to deceive, and the dark horses left alive could still tear up the bracket on the road to MetLife on 19 July.
This edition leaves the pre-tournament odds behind and ranks teams on what the group stage actually told us. It blends three inputs into an editorial order.
Everything below is a judgement made as the group stage closes on 27 June, before a knockout ball is kicked. For the structure the knockouts follow, see our knockout bracket guide and the new Round of 16 preview, and for how a side even reaches them, the 48-team format explainer.
Two sides have separated themselves with the group stage behind us: one on pure quality, the other on the aura of the champions who refuse to concede.
Four serial contenders a rung below the leaders, all through to the knockouts, all capable of catching the top two if their best is still to come.
Sides through to the knockouts whose group stage raised as many doubts as it settled, plus the host nation riding real momentum.
None will be favoured in the Round of 32, but each survived the group stage with the ceiling to knock out a seed and reshape the bracket.
Three weeks of football reshuffled the pre-tournament board in ways the odds did not see coming.
The biggest mover is France. Pre-tournament they sat behind Spain on the market; on the evidence of Group I they are the team to beat, the only contender to pair elite attacking quality with a defence that has barely been breached. Argentina have done what champions do, winning without fuss and without conceding, with Messi answering every question asked of him.
The cautionary tales are Germany, who advanced but looked vulnerable in losing to Ecuador, and the early version of Spain that drew with Cape Verde before clicking. The flip side is the rise of the outsiders: Ecuador topping the best-third table, Morocco primed for another run, and hosts Mexico and the United States both topping their groups. The bottom half of the draw, stacked with Brazil, Argentina, England and Portugal, is where the tournament could be decided before the final.
These are rankings, not results. A single Round of 32 upset can redraw everything. Track how it moves with the Round of 16 preview, the knockout bracket guide and the group pages from Group A to Group L.
Go deeper on the knockouts and the road to the final:
Every last-16 slot, the dates and venues from 4 to 7 July, and the standout ties the bracket points toward.
Preview the last 16 ›The full path to the MetLife final, every round's venues and dates, and why Brazil and Argentina sit in the same half.
Map the bracket ›Our power ranking on the eve of kickoff, the odds, the dark horses and a single prediction, to see how the picture has moved.
Compare the boards ›All 104 fixtures across 16 host cities, with kickoff times you can filter to your team and time zone.
Open the schedule ›This re-cut power ranking was hand-written from the following reporting, used to confirm the group-stage results, the qualified teams and the form picture as the knockouts approached:
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