The outsiders who could go deep in North America. Morocco, the 2022 semi-finalists, head the list, with Croatia in Modric's farewell, Uruguay under Bielsa, Ecuador, Senegal, Japan and more. We rank the genuine surprise packages by draw, form and key players, explain how the 48-team format helps an underdog, and end with a single pick.
A dark horse is not a team tipped to win the trophy. It is a side the market underrates that has the squad, the form and the draw to go further than expected, usually a deep knockout run rather than the title itself.
The expanded 48-team format tilts the odds toward the underdog. Twelve groups of four plus the eight best third-placed teams mean a single good result can be enough to survive, and the brand-new Round of 32 adds one more cup tie, the format in which upsets live.
Three teams with both the pedigree and the path to reach the last eight or better. None would be a shock at the quarter-finals.
A rung down on pedigree or draw, but each with a clear way to spring a surprise: a watertight defence, a deep European-based squad, or a star who can win a game alone.
The expanded World Cup is built, almost by accident, to give outsiders more oxygen than any previous edition.
The first change is survival. With 12 groups of four, the top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams go through, which means 32 of the 48 nations reach the knockout phase. A dark horse no longer has to finish in the top two of its group; one win and a draw is often enough to sneak through as a best third. That removes the single biggest way underdogs used to be eliminated, the unforgiving three-game group.
The second change is the new Round of 32. It adds an extra single-game knockout tie before the Round of 16, and single-game cup ties are exactly where lower-ranked teams cause upsets, with one hot goalkeeper or one set-piece enough to topple a favourite. The trade-off cuts the other way for the very top: the road to the MetLife final is now eight matches rather than seven, so going all the way is harder than ever. For an outsider, though, the extra knockout round is one more chance to be the giant-killer rather than the giant.
One surprise package, as the groups get under way.
Morocco to be the dark horse of 2026 and reach at least the quarter-finals again, with a second semi-final firmly in range. The reasoning is simple: unlike almost every other outsider, Morocco have already done it. They have a settled coach in Walid Regragui, a genuinely elite spine through Achraf Hakimi and the midfield, a Group C they can finish second in behind Brazil, and a tournament on North American soil where their travelling support will be among the largest of any nation.
Croatia are the most reliable alternative, the team you least want to draw in a tight knockout tie, and Ecuador the value defensive pick if their back line travels. Japan are the wildcard if they finally break their Round of 16 curse, while Norway have the talent but the cruellest draw. For the full title picture, see our power ranking, and for the top-scorer angle the Golden Boot race.
It is a prediction, not a certainty. A dark horse run turns on a single knockout tie, a penalty shootout, or a best-third place decided on goal difference. Track it as the groups play out with the match schedule and the group guides from Group A to Group L.
Go deeper on the contenders and the road to the final:
Our data-led power ranking of the title contenders, where the dark horses sit, and a single prediction for who lifts the trophy.
See the ranking ›The full path to the MetLife final, every round's venues and dates, and the half of the draw each dark horse falls into.
Map the bracket ›Our dark-horse pick: the 2022 semi-finalists, Hakimi, Regragui's side and Morocco in Group C.
See the pick ›The top-scorer contenders and odds, the tiebreakers, and where an outsider's striker can sneak the award.
See the race ›This dark-horses guide was hand-written from the following reporting, draw and odds pages, used to confirm the groups, qualifying records and the market prices:
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