The talisman is scoring and creating freely, all five of Argentina's group goals coming from his boot or his pass. A peak Messi remains the single biggest edge any team at the tournament can hold.
This is almost certainly the last time the world watches Lionel Messi at a World Cup, and he is making it count. The two-time Golden Ball winner carried defending champions Argentina through Group J with a perfect record, scoring all five of their goals without conceding. At 39, in his farewell on the biggest stage, the question is whether the 2022 magic can strike twice and make Argentina the first nation since 1962 to go back-to-back.
Messi arrives at his farewell tournament as the most decorated player in the game's history, which is precisely why the country expects one more miracle.
The 2022 final is the keystone. Messi captained Argentina to glory in Qatar, ending a 36-year wait, and finally answered the only question left in his career. Now he returns as a champion rather than a chaser, and the framing has flipped: not can Messi win it, but can he leave the stage having won it twice in a row. For the full team picture, see our Argentina squad guide.
Defending the World Cup is the rarest achievement in the sport, but several things are lining up for the holders this time.
The talisman is scoring and creating freely, all five of Argentina's group goals coming from his boot or his pass. A peak Messi remains the single biggest edge any team at the tournament can hold.
Argentina came through Group J without conceding a goal. Under Lionel Scaloni the holders are hard to break down, and tournaments are won on solidity as much as star power.
Goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez is a proven shootout specialist who was decisive in 2022. In a knockout format where ties go to penalties, that is a genuine weapon.
Julian Alvarez, Lautaro Martinez, Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez mean Argentina are not a one-man team. They can win matches even on the nights Messi is shackled.
A squad playing for its captain's send-off has a rare unity of purpose. The emotional pull of Messi's last dance drove the 2021 and 2024 Copa America wins, and it is driving this campaign too.
This is largely the same core that won in 2022. They know how to manage a long tournament, ride the tight games and peak in the knockouts, an experience few rivals can match.
For all the form, Argentina landed in the loaded half of the bracket, and the road to MetLife runs through giants.
As Group J winners Argentina avoided the very toughest seeds in the early rounds, but there is no easy path from here. For how the bracket opens up, see our Round of 16 preview and the full path to the final, and weigh the field in our read on the favourites.
History says retaining the trophy is almost impossible. Messi's form, and Argentina's, say do not bet against it.
The sensible read is that back-to-back is a long shot for anyone, and the bottom half of the draw makes it harder still. But Argentina have answered the first and most common question that buries holders, the group-stage stumble, with three wins and a clean sheet, and they have the one ingredient money cannot buy: a peak Lionel Messi with a point to prove and a country willing him on. He has already done the impossible once, ending the 36-year wait in 2022. If any side can become the first since 1962 to defend the World Cup, it is a settled, miserly champion led by the greatest player the game has produced, in the tournament he has framed as his farewell. The romance is obvious. The form backs it up. Track it alongside the Golden Ball race, where Messi is chasing a third, and our power rankings as the bracket narrows toward New York.
Messi's farewell is one story among 48 teams. Explore the rest of the WorldCuply.com guide:
The holders' full guide: Scaloni's 2022 core, the spine around Messi, Group J and the case for the title defence.
See the squad ›Messi, Mbappe, Yamal and the field for the best player of the tournament, and who carries their team to MetLife.
See the race ›The outright favourites and the odds, the loaded bottom half, and the case for and against every contender.
See the favourites ›Every last-16 tie, the dates and venues from 4 to 7 July, and how the bracket opens toward the final.
Preview the last 16 ›Career records, the squad and the group-stage results were checked against official and authoritative sources:
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