The Golden Ball goes to the best player of the World Cup, voted by the media after the final. As the new Round of 32 begins, Kylian Mbappe leads the race for the talisman of the tournament favourites, with Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal chasing and France's Michael Olise the bolter. Here are the contenders, how the award works, and who carries their team toward MetLife on 19 July.
The adidas Golden Ball goes to the best player of the World Cup, and understanding how it is chosen explains why our front-runners are who they are.
Our ranking weighs group-stage form against how likely each player's team is to go deep, using our read on the favourites and power rankings. For the separate top-scorer race, see the Golden Boot guide; for the knockout structure, the bracket guide.
One is the talisman of the tournament favourites; the other has dragged the defending champions through the group stage almost on his own.
Three more who could overtake the leaders with a couple of decisive knockout displays as their teams advance.
None lead the market, but each has the platform and the form to climb fast if their tournament takes off.
If you had to call it as the knockouts begin, the logic points one way, but this award turns on the last four matches.
The smart pick is Kylian Mbappe. He is the best player on the most complete team and the tournament favourites, scoring and creating, and the Golden Ball follows the deep runs. If France reach the final, as the market expects, he will have had more high-profile minutes to sway the vote than anyone. The romance pick is Lionel Messi: a two-time winner carrying the champions in his farewell, the kind of story the voters have rewarded before.
The value, as ever, is in youth and upside. Lamine Yamal on Spain's kinder half of the draw could break out into a Golden Ball at an age nobody has managed, while France's Michael Olise is the bolter whose platform with the favourites is bigger than his price suggests. Watch the midfield runners too: a Jude Bellingham or a Pedri can win this from deep if their team goes the distance.
This is a snapshot, not a result. One brilliant semi-final can settle the whole thing. Track it alongside the Golden Boot race, our read on the favourites and the Round of 16 preview as the bracket narrows toward MetLife.
Go deeper on the knockouts and the road to the final:
The separate race for the top scorer: Mbappe, Kane, Haaland, Messi and Yamal, the tiebreakers, and the market.
Read the scoring race ›The outright favourites and the odds, the case for and against every contender, and a single prediction for the trophy.
See the favourites ›Our order of the surviving teams after the group stage, who looks like a winner, and who flattered to deceive.
See the rankings ›Every last-16 slot, the dates and venues from 4 to 7 July, and the standout ties the bracket points toward.
Preview the last 16 ›This guide to the Golden Ball race was hand-written from the following reporting, used to confirm how the award works, the past winners, and the group-stage form of the contenders:
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